Grains Report 07/17/19

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for July USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed July 1 101.8 100.9- 103.2
Placed in June 97.7 93.2- 105.7
Marketed in June 96.9 95.8- 98.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
July 1 in June in June
Allegiant Commodity Group 101.6 95.8 96.8
Allendale Inc. 100.9 93.2 98.3
HedgersEdge 102.5 102.4 97.0
Linn Group 101.8 97.6 97.1
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.3 95.1 97.2
NFC Markets 103.2 105.7 96.2
Texas A&M Extenstion 102.1 98.1 95.8
U.S. Commodities 101.7 97.2 97.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on selling that developed mostly in sympathy with the weakness in Corn and especially Soybeans, The selling came from funds and on reports that US prices are too high to attract world buyers. The harvest pace for Winter Wheat is active at this time and the condition ratings for Spring Wheat improved. Private sources in eastern Europe and Russia are reporting lower harvested yields again, so world prices could catch up to those from the US. But, world buyers need to show up and buy. There have not been many tender announcements lately and the market needs some business. Most buyers will continue to look to Europe and Russia to buy as those prices are still lower. The US Winter Wheat harvest has produced strong yields, so the overall price structure for US Wheat can stay weak until the demand for US Wheat starts to improve.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see showers and storms off tomorrow, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers off and on this week. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 501, 498, and 494 September, with resistance at 517, 519, and 528 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 442, 440, and 431 September, with resistance at 452, 458, and 463 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 530, 524, and 521 September, and resistance is at 538, 543, and 547 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was lower before the release of the weekly crop progress and condition reports. USDA showed that progress remains behind normal but did show slight improvement in the overall crop. Weather is still important to watch, but damage from the tropical storms appears minimal. The system threatened to bring flooding rains to Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The reports from many growing areas suggest that any crop damage will be minimal as the rains and flooding did not appear to be severe enough or widespread enough to call for major damage to the heads of the grain. The Indian monsoon showed above normal rains for central and western parts of the country, but Rice areas in the south of the country continued to get below normal rains. Indian Rice production might be stressed now and production might be less this year due to the weaker monsoon rains.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers and storms in all areas. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1169, 1153, and 1108 September. Support is at 1172, 1166, and 1154 September, with resistance at 1185, 1196, and 1202 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 17
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 13.36 8.29 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 12.85 8.87 0.00
Brokens 8.06 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed moderately lower on forecasts for some beneficial rains to appear in parts of the Corn Belt by the end of next week. Some surprise rains were reported in Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota also saw some precipitation. Most areas south and east of Chicago saw at least some light precipitation as some showers from the tropical system in the Delta earlier in the week made it to the Midwest. Overall, the west should stay hot and dry this week, but all areas could see cooler temperatures next week. USDA showed marginal improvement in the crop condition reports this week, but many wonder why given the reports of heat rolling the leaves and stress to the crops. There is still a good chance for Corn to trade above $5.00 per bushel given the stressful weather, but to trade much above that level will require improved demand of for crop conditions to get worse. The crop is very late this year as much of the Corn was planted one to two months behind normal dates. It is mostly very short and at least some of it might not be mature before normal first freeze dates. The crop was planted into mostly very wet soils and the soils have compacted due to the rain and the equipment used to plant and fertilize the crop. The root structure is not as strong as it might normally be and there have been reports of stress from leaves rolling in parts of Illinois and Indiana.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 420, 400, and 394 September. Support is at 427, 425, and 421 September, and resistance is at 440, 445, and 447 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 272, 270, and 268 September, and resistance is at 278, 283, and 285 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on ideas of improving Midwest weather. Additional selling came when President Trump tweeted that China was not buying US agricultural products as promised and threatened to put tariffs on another $325 billion of Chinese goods. News reports indicate that China has hardened its negotiating position and that the two sides appear as far apart as ever in getting a deal done. Some surprise rains were reported in Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota also saw some precipitation. Most areas south and east of Chicago saw at least some light precipitation as some showers from the tropical system in the Delta earlier in the week made it to the Midwest. Overall, the west should stay hot and dry this week, but all areas could see cooler temperatures next week. USDA showed marginal improvement in the crop condition reports this week, but many wonder why given the reports of heat adding to stress to the crops. Like Corn, the Soybeans were mostly planted very late and are very small. Hot and dry weather now will inhibit growth potential as the crops are not all that well established. It is now a weather market and the forecasts for this month and into August will be key for longer term price direction. USDA showed that South America will have plenty of Soybeans to offer and this fact will inhibit the upside potential for prices of Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 884, 872, and 865 August, and resistance is at 900, 918, and 923 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 300.00, and 295.00 August, and resistance is at 311.00, 316.00, and 317.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2780, 2760, and 2730 August, with resistance at 2860, 2870, and 2930 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower with Chicago but held a support area and closed with only moderate losses. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. The trading volumes were light yesterday with not much speculative activity seen. Palm Oil was a little higher in consolidation trading. The stronger demand shown by SGS helped support futures, but there are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. GAPKI showed that Indonesian stocks are up 10% for May. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 442.00, 437.00, and 434.00 November, with resistance at 448.00, 452.00, and 453.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 October, with resistance at 1990, 2010, and 2030 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry today and tomorrow, but scattered showers possible late in the week, especially south and east of Chicago. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +54 Sep +162 Sep +45 Sep +55 Aug N/A N/A
August +49 Sep +50 Sep +54 Aug
September +51 Sep +70 Sep +35 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July
August
September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 16
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 436.90 dn 3.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 457.30 up 0.40
Basis: Vancouver 465.30 dn 1.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which Ware in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 495.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 495.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 520.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 500.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 500.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 502.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 525.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 480.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 335.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 1910.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 133.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1140)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 1
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 128,668 lots, or 4.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,372 3,387 3,355 3,376 3,398 3,372 -26 117,064 160,994
Nov-19 3,448 3,449 3,420 3,449 3,457 3,437 -20 48 348
Jan-20 3,397 3,406 3,385 3,401 3,414 3,397 -17 10,316 55,380
Mar-20 3,424 3,424 3,372 3,372 3,427 3,413 -14 10 30
May-20 3,508 3,518 3,496 3,514 3,518 3,511 -7 1,230 26,674
Jul-20 – – – 3,516 3,516 3,516 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 391,918 lots, or 7.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,925 1,929 1,922 1,925 1,924 1,925 1 234,746 834,570
Nov-19 1,953 1,957 1,949 1,951 1,953 1,952 -1 35,870 349,978
Jan-20 1,986 1,990 1,980 1,984 1,985 1,985 0 109,452 626,726
Mar-20 2,005 2,005 2,001 2,001 2,004 2,003 -1 64 2,236
May-20 2,043 2,048 2,042 2,044 2,045 2,045 0 11,112 114,852
Jul-20 2,073 2,073 2,063 2,069 2,073 2,067 -6 674 550
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,307,042 lots, or 65.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 2,820 2,865 2,820 2,850 2,837 2,848 11 308 1,020
Sep-19 2,800 2,840 2,794 2,828 2,822 2,822 0 1,647,962 1,558,084
Nov-19 2,840 2,864 2,828 2,849 2,861 2,845 -16 89,754 213,994
Dec-19 2,851 2,869 2,842 2,856 2,853 2,858 5 442 1,146
Jan-20 2,858 2,885 2,855 2,860 2,878 2,868 -10 503,486 731,522
Mar-20 2,804 2,808 2,803 2,808 2,808 2,804 -4 8 718
May-20 2,744 2,753 2,737 2,737 2,753 2,743 -10 65,028 220,680
Jul-20 2,742 2,751 2,736 2,737 2,763 2,741 -22 54 82
Palm Oil
Turnover: 379,294 lots, or 16.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 4,254 4,254 4,254 0 0 0
Sep-19 4,216 4,220 4,182 4,198 4,222 4,198 -24 307,666 605,204
Oct-19 – – – 4,304 4,304 4,304 0 0 16
Nov-19 – – – 4,308 4,332 4,308 -24 0 16
Dec-19 – – – 4,478 4,478 4,478 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,424 4,430 4,408 4,418 4,432 4,416 -16 68,188 259,200
Feb-20 – – – 4,472 4,472 4,472 0 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,598 4,598 4,598 0 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,628 4,628 4,628 0 0 2
May-20 4,634 4,648 4,632 4,644 4,648 4,642 -6 3,440 28,544
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 428,606 lots, or 23.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 5,406 5,406 5,406 5,406 5,266 5,406 140 4 32
Sep-19 5,430 5,440 5,408 5,426 5,440 5,422 -18 300,698 655,206
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,524 5,524 5,524 0 0 28
Jan-20 5,598 5,604 5,568 5,582 5,606 5,586 -20 112,106 309,836
Mar-20 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 12
May-20 5,700 5,722 5,676 5,690 5,706 5,702 -4 15,798 46,304
Jul-20 – – – 5,700 5,700 5,700 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.