AgriCharts Market Commentary

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.

Corn Futures Regain Some Momentum

Corn futures closed higher after Thursday’s round of trading by as much as 1 3/4 cents in the nearby contracts. A private export sale of 106,000 MT of 19/20 corn to unknown was reported this morning. Weekly corn export sales as of 11/14 were listed at 788,022 MT, which is 10.19% below last year’s weekly sales. That was the second largest weekly sale this MY, however. The update also showed weekly exports were 11.8% above last week at 673,060 MT (26.497 mbu). The accumulated exports have increased to 5.214 MT through the MY, averaging a growth rate of 14.6% over the last 5 weeks. Accumulated exports are still well below last year’s levels, but have made progress, outpacing last year’s growth by an average of 1.18% wk/wk for the latest update revealing accumulated exports still 59.45% behind last year. The international Grain Council updated it’s 19/20 outlook, forecasting corn production to be 1.103 BMT, a 5 MMT bump from their October forecast. Carryover was only given a 1 MMT increase mo/mo, because the IGC also increased corn consumption. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated that Argentina corn is 45.7% planted as of 11/21.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.68 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.79, up 1 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.84 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.90, up 3/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Bean Exports Fail to Pull Up Prices

Thursday concluded with soybean futures in the red as deep as 4 cents. Soybean meal finished with a gain of $1.20/ton. Bean oil was 51 points lower. Soybean Export sales were above expectations, with the USDA weekly update revealing net sales to be 1.516 MMT for the week ending 11/14. Soybean export shipments through the same week were 1.707 MMT (62.73 mbu). That was a MY high and 34.2% above the same week last year. Accumulated soybean exports are 13.6% above last year with 12.368 MMT (454.46 mbu) shipped. It was a slow week for soybean meal, as export sales were right at the low end of expectations with 196,434 MT. The unshipped commits are up to 3.334 MMT, which is 19.8% behind last year’s total through the first 7 weeks. Weekly exports for soymeal were tallied at 159,902 MT, a 41.8% drop off over the same week last year. As for bean oil, export sales were above expectations for the week ending 11/14, with the USDA reporting 39,137 MT of export sales. Shipments to China, as indicated by the weekly report, were at 873,573 MT for the week, which brought the accumulated shipments to 4.027 MMT. The PRC also added 568,573 MT of purchases through the week, bringing the undelivered commitments to a total of 8.476 MMT. The Weekly Ag Report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated Argentinean bean planting had reached 31.1% completion as of 11/21.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.01, down 4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $9.15 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.28 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.40 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $301.00, up $1.20,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.69, down $0.51

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Thursday Wheat Lower Still

Wheat futures never recovered on Thursday, closing with losses as low as 6 1/2 cents for the nearby contracts. The weekly Export Sales Report from the USDA came out this morning, showing that wheat was in line with expectations. The report indicated that 437,655 MT of wheat were sold through the week ending 11/14. That was an 83.41% increase over last week, and is 32.46% above the same week last year. The total unshipped commitments however are below last year’s pace, at 3.910 MMT. Accumulated exports are, however, 25.22% above last year’s pace, with the weekly update showing shipments to be 11.705 MMT. That is riding on a 6.97% wk/wk increase for all wheat shipments. The IGC published their 19/20 MY projections for world grain supplies and usage for their November update, although it showed no change from the October forecast. Japan purchased 119,998 MT of US and Canadian wheat in their weekly tender, with 65,368 MT from US. Algeria also purchased 500,000 in a recent tender, with most of the origin likely French.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.09, down 6 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.21, down 5 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.95 1/4, down 6 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Mostly Lower after Thursday Trades

Live cattle futures went against cash cattle prices, narrowing the basis. Dec futures are saw a modest 2 cent gain, but the other front months did not find support from the cash market, closing with losses by as much as 60 cents. Feeder cattle futures were $1.07 to $1.35 lower at the close. The 11/19 CME Feeder Cattle index was down 41 cents to $145.86. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again this afternoon. Choice boxes were down $3.35, while select boxes had dropped $0.91 to tighten the spread to 21.00. So far this week trade has been reported in the $116 range in the South. Some sales of $116-117 have been reported in NE. Export Sales of beef were reported at 17,959 MT (2019) for the week ending on 11/14, with 3,247 MT for 2020. Shipments were reported at 29,886, the highest weekly total so far this year. Japan was the top destinations of 86,000 MT, with 1,134 MT headed to China (largest ever for the weekly report). Cattle on Feed report will be out tomorrow afternoon. The weekly livestock slaughter from the USDA revealed that although the average dressed weight (829 lbs) was the highest all year (since December 1st 2018) it was still 0.12% below the same point last year. Only 6 weeks have had an average dressed weight above last year’s corresponding figure. Heifer slaughter YTD is 7.31 percentage points above last year. Steers slaughter is 1.8 percentage points below last year. The USDA’s weekly estimated FI cattle slaughter is up to 471,000 head through Thursday afternoon, that’s 4,000 head above last week’s pace.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $119.325, up $0.025,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $125.050, down $0.425,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $125.650, down $0.600,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.525, down $1.075

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.600, down $1.475

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.800, down $1.350

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Recovered Some Losses

Hog futures did make a small bounce back on Thursday with the front months closing $0.20 to $1.175 in the black. The 11/19 CME Lean Hog Index recovered $0.29 $59.58. The USDA pork carcass cutout value fell by a sharp $5.11, butt was the only primal cut that made a gain on the day as Hams were down $8.99 with Bellies $14.46 lower. USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/21 was up $0.20 to $42.53. Weekly pork sales for the week ending 11/14 were tallied at 54,385 MT for 2019, with 36,424 MT for 2020 sales (most to China). Shipments were shows at 59,848 MT, with 12,979 MT headed to China and 16,600 MT to Japan. The USDA Cold Storage Report comes out Friday afternoon. The USDA weekly Livestock Slaughter Report indicated that hog slaughter for the week ending 11/9 was 2.698 million head. Which was 4.13 % above the same week last year, hog slaughter averages 4.22% above last year. USDA estimated FI daily hog slaughter was estimated at 484,000 head, to put the weekly total at 1.964 million head

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $60.650, up $0.200,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $67.450, up $0.675

APR 20 Hogs closed at $74.100, up $1.175

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Falls again Thursday

Cotton finished the day with losses of 34 to 45 points. The USDA updated weekly export sales for upland cotton, revealing that for the week ending 11/14 a total of 227,600 RB were sold, which was 35.04% behind last week’s multi-year high for weekly sales. That was the third largest for this MY. Another 58,200 RB were sold for 20/21. The shipments through the week ending 11/14 were 137,886 RB which raised the accumulated MY shipments to 2.748 MRB, that is 14.44% above last year’s pace and the highest through the first 16 weeks of the MY since 2008/09. China increased weekly cotton shipments by 39.94% wk/wk. With 21,954 RB shipped over the week, the MYTD accumulated China exports are 234,234 RB. The 11/20 Cotlook A Index was down another 60 points to 74.40 cents/lb. The weekly update to the AWP for cotton is back down to 56.36 cents per lb. The update lowered it by 70 points wk/wk, the previous adjustment was an increase of 1.03 cents per lb.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 61.79, down 45 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 63.94, down 34 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 65.1, down 38 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 66.12, down 41 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353