Trading Coach - Actionable Market Levels & Commentary - July 17

Actionable Levels:



Range Low

Range High




VIX (Cash)












10YR (Yield)




Daily Commentary-

Yesterday Trump said he could place another 325B in tariffs on Chinese goods, and added we still have a long way to go on trade with China. Again, we dont typically concern our decisions based on political noise, but you have to pay attention to it as it drives near-term volatility and creates opportunity.

Silver prices stole the show yesterday, trading up 2.25% and higher again this morning by 0.57%. Currency wars are likely to persist, as global central banks all race to devalue their currencies to gain an advantage on the world stage. Ultimately we believe the Fed will win this game, and a larger decline in the USD is likely in oncoming weeks/months. Draghi and the ECB will meet (July 25) ahead of the US Fed and you better believe theyll attempt to devalue and talk down the Euro. Gold should hold up well in light of the currency war and is still on our list of best performing asset classes to be in. Ive been asked about Bitcoin, which has seemingly become enemy of the state in recent weeks, with both the President and Treasury Sec Mnuchin speaking against the idea of crypto, and claiming it will be subject to regulation by FINRA. I still dont have any interest in Bitcoin as its yet to endure a full business cycle.

Oil- some near-term volatility yesterday in Oil, -3.8% at one point yesterday and back up +1.20% this morning. News broke that US/Iran tensions subsided yesterday was the news, but also quantitatively speaking, Oil tapped the top of our range within a bearish 3-6 month trend. I see a lot of chop in Oil over the next few weeks with a bearish bias.

Good Luck!

Follow me on twitter @JCarusoRJO

Sign up for our Daily Fundamental Market Insights and Emailed Trade Recommendations by selecting the Link Below:

Trade with the trend are words commonly echoed by professional traders. At what price does one sell in a bearish trending market and at what price does one buy in a bullish trending market? The Market Navigator is intended to provide guide posts to identify those price levels.

How to use our strategy:


The rules based strategy is simple.

If a market is in aBullishtrend a trader should only be looking to participate as abuyerand only at thelowend of the range.

If a market is in aBearishtrend a trader should only be looking to participate as asellerand only at thehighend of the range.

If a market is in aNeutraltrend a trader should be looking to participate as abuyeronly at thelowend of the range OR as aselleronly at thehighend of the range.


Determining how a market is currently trending depends on the time line. I typically track markets on both a monthly and weekly timeframe to identify trend bias. In my experience, studying market price, action, and behavior, Ive observed that markets that trend bullish or bearish on a 3-month timeline tend to hold that posture for an extended period of time.

With this in mind, all markets have the tendency to revert back to the mean, whether bullish or bearish trend. In other words, you get bull market dips that create buying opportunities, and bear market rips that create selling opportunities.


Trading ranges are determined by an ongoing tug of war on price levels between buyers and sellers. The top end of a range is typically where buying pressure has run out of steam and the number of sellers overwhelms the market and pushes it lower. Conversely, the bottom end of a range is typically where selling pressure has run out of steam and the number of buyers overwhelms the market and pushes it higher.

Range trading with the trend enables one to participate in a market with predefined entry target levels while keeping the overall bias in sync with the market trend. My proprietary trading range levels can be viewed as support and resistance levels, however unlike traditional static support and resistance, my levels update on the open and close of the market and may be different each period depending on market volatility. The levels factor in both the medium term and near term price action.

Use these levels to help manage market swings and risk. Remember, the amount of risk that you accept is the only aspect of the market you control.Sign up for a free 2 week demo of ourRJOF PRO Trading Platformand John Caruso will include you on his daily email distribution during the trial period.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of R.J. OBrien & Associates, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by R.J. OBrien & Associates, LLC Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITEDOR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITH REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that R.J. OBrien & Associates, LLC believes to be reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgement at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitabl